Wednesday, November 18, 2015

An Employment Snapshot - 2015

A quick look at some numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics can shed light on how the WV job market has been faring since the 2008 financial crisis. Since the first quarter of 2009 the labor force has been shrinking. It fell from nearly 820,000 to about 775,000 participants between 2009 and the start of 2015. That is a decline of approximately 5.5% (about 0.9% per year). However, that trend reversed course drastically in 2015, and there are close to 790,000 people working or looking for work. The bad news of that small uptrend is that there are many more people looking for work than those who have actually found jobs. Gross employment is still down since 2005. There are over 100,000 fewer workers in 2015 than there were in 2005.
In summary, there are more citizens looking for jobs in 2015 and fewer total jobs than in 2005. This can only mean one thing for the unemployment rate. It has risen. The unemployment rate had been on a steady decline since 2011 when the recovery seemed to begin reaching WV's job market. It steadily declined from 8.5% to 6% at the start of 2015. But with the recovery more job seekers are now entering the labor market. Unfortunately, the recovery has been slow and long. Thus, the unemployment rate is back around 7.5% in 2015.
The government, large national chains, health care organizations and natural resources are the main sources of state-wide employment. So the national economy can serve as a fairly good predictor of WV's employment fortunes. Higher environmental standards and lower commodity prices have spelled bad news for the coal and gas industries, so that source of employment will be less promising in the coming years. Government budgets have taken a hit since the financial crisis as lower tax revenues struggled to keep pace with expenditures. Some cuts have been made to state employee insurance policies; I imagine this is one way to protect against layoffs, which are rarely done in government. Stagnant pay and benefits in government and natural resources will hurt the service industry. But since most of the service industry consists of national brands, it will be somewhat immune to lower regional sales in WV. The health services industry will remain a steady source of employment, but for some unsettling reasons - mainly, an ageing and ailing populace.
Employment prospects are always dependent on the individual and his/her level of qualification as well as the demand for workers in a specific industry. But the overall picture for 2015 is this: slightly higher employment, much higher demand for work.