An Employment Snapshot - 2015

A quick look at some numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics can shed light on how the WV job market has been faring since the 2008 financial crisis. Since the first quarter of 2009 the labor force has been shrinking. It fell from nearly 820,000 to about 775,000 participants between 2009 and the start of 2015. That is a decline of approximately 5.5% (about 0.9% per year). However, that trend reversed course drastically in 2015, and there are close to 790,000 people working or looking for work. The bad news of that small uptrend is that there are many more people looking for work than those who have actually found jobs. Gross employment is still down since 2005. There are over 100,000 fewer workers in 2015 than there were in 2005.
In summary, there are more citizens looking for jobs in 2015 and fewer total jobs than in 2005. This can only mean one thing for the unemployment rate. It has risen. The unemployment rate had been on a steady decline since 2011 when the recovery seemed to begin reaching WV's job market. It steadily declined from 8.5% to 6% at the start of 2015. But with the recovery more job seekers are now entering the labor market. Unfortunately, the recovery has been slow and long. Thus, the unemployment rate is back around 7.5% in 2015.
The government, large national chains, health care organizations and natural resources are the main sources of state-wide employment. So the national economy can serve as a fairly good predictor of WV's employment fortunes. Higher environmental standards and lower commodity prices have spelled bad news for the coal and gas industries, so that source of employment will be less promising in the coming years. Government budgets have taken a hit since the financial crisis as lower tax revenues struggled to keep pace with expenditures. Some cuts have been made to state employee insurance policies; I imagine this is one way to protect against layoffs, which are rarely done in government. Stagnant pay and benefits in government and natural resources will hurt the service industry. But since most of the service industry consists of national brands, it will be somewhat immune to lower regional sales in WV. The health services industry will remain a steady source of employment, but for some unsettling reasons - mainly, an ageing and ailing populace.
Employment prospects are always dependent on the individual and his/her level of qualification as well as the demand for workers in a specific industry. But the overall picture for 2015 is this: slightly higher employment, much higher demand for work.

Employment & Wages Update

This is an update concerning the WV wages and employment with the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Historical data is only available up to the second quarter of 2014, which ended in June 2014. While the average U.S. state posted a gain of 1.56% in employment from June 2013 to June 2014, WV had negative employment growth of -0.3%. It was one of three states/territories to lose jobs over that period. The other two areas to have negative job growth were the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. This is a continuation of the weak employment recovery from the financial crisis of 2008. But it is disappointing that WV could not post even moderate positive employment growth over that 12-month time span, especially given the ability of every contiguous state to do just that.
Looking at the breakdown of employment growth and decline among WV counties shows great inequality. Doddridge County had job growth of +19% from June 2013 to 2014 to lead the state, while Mingo County had negative employment growth of -14.9% at the bottom of the list. Thirty-six of the fifty-five counties had flat or negative employment growth for this period. Counties with stagnant or negative employment included some of the counties with relatively high average weekly wages. Mingo County had the 3rd highest average weekly wage at $936, but had the worst job losses; Putnam County had the 5th highest weekly wage ($907), however it gained 0% employment. Kanawha County had -0.1% job growth with the 12th highest weekly wages of $830.
Unsurprisingly, most of the employment decline and growth is tied to natural resources. Coal mine closures in Mingo County are probably responsible for the majority of job losses. Legislation proposed to give tax credits to employers who locate on reclaimed mine properties is unlikely to have much of an effect. Tax credits may sound appealing, but if employers have no other reason to locate in a particular area (access to markets, natural resources, skilled workforce) they will not obey some politician's whim. On the other side of the spectrum, natural gas projects in the northern counties are adding to employment growth. This is powered by Marcellus Shale drilling and its support services, pipeline transmission, and electricity generators that are flooding those counties. That growth is not without negative side-effects, as some residents cope with increased truck traffic on local roads, consumption of large volumes of water from local sources, and load noises from drilling activity. The potential for explosions from highly pressurized gas, due to inattentive operators, and the constant worry of water contamination from the public will also continue to hamper the natural gas industry.
The search for new industries and employment diversification continues in WV. Natural resource exploitation, education, health care, and government work have offered the extent of employment opportunities in recent state history. That has landed WV with the 41st highest average weekly wage ($792) of 50 states. And it failed to contribute net job growth in the most recent period. More than tax breaks will be required to alter the state's employment picture. It will take a wide-scale change in workforce skills that attract existing companies and a thriving small business sector. That may not be possible to achieve with any set of policy tools.

Addendum: To be fair, employment has mostly recovered in WV since the 2008 recession. Seasonally controlled net employment is down from a 10-year peak of 715,677 in 2008 to 711,266 in June of 2014. The recovery of jobs seems to have leveled off since 2012 with declining employment over the last few quarters. The picture is not too bleak if we consider that from 2004 to 2014 employment in WV has increased from 694,322 workers to 711,266 workers - a gain of 16,944 net jobs.